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Friday, February 5, 2010

Malaysia's economy face a steep dive

Brace yourself folks for a hard landing Malaysia's economy wise. Please folks, even if you are not interested in politics, think of your and your loved ones' wallet if we don't make even the tiniest effort at bringing positive changes to Malaysia (read this inspiring story Little bird smallest action changed the world if you need inspiration to gt off your butt).

Who is this Wenger Khairy? In this comment at Politics of kangaroo trial not only is a pretty sharp analysis of what awaits us in as per the direction of Malaysia's economic future, and is making me pay a bit more attention to him or her.

Dear Dato',
I have to respectfully disagree with your reading of the situation. The facts what you say are correct, but Tengku is spot on the interpretation.

Anwar in 2009 is not the same as Anwar in 1999. His support base is greatly diminished, and that may sound counter intuitive considering the tremendous gains the Opposition has made in the electoral seats.

Why do I say that?
The oft held wisdom among the UMNO elite is that Anwar is the glue that binds DAP and PAS, which as usual is outdated. In fact, really PAS had planned the outcome of this trial way back in 2009, and if you look at recent pronouncements considering the issues dear to the Malay community,they did not need Anwar to mediate a common platform with the DAP. Furthermore, PAS and DAP model was put to the test in Perak and it was the actions of 2 x PKR reps and 1 x DAP rep which caused it to fail, initially. Furthermore, Anwar did more damage than good when he decided to go with this MP jumping routine, and really if Anwar gets taken down, I bet it would not be an insignificant proportion that says good riddance to bad rubbish. Even RPK has more or less said so.

But Anwar has yet one last role to play before he goes down. He will bring the Government down with him.

Let me explain how.

From the initial 2 days of trial, we assume that this trial is going to last for some time, lets say 4 months. A week plus from now, Nizar's case gets mentioned before the High Court, around the same time TBH inquest resumes.

So we have two potential time bombs for the Government with this protracted fight against Anwar. Remember the Government is not engaging in a fight with the Opposition, they are engaging in a fight with Anwar. The Opposition (PAS & DAP) is happily working together to bring BN down.

And already a lot of questions are being asked on the motives of Saiful, you can read around to find out. Just imagine how Karpal & Co. are going to cross examine Sayful. Is the end game to save Anwar?


Around the same time our economy is in the doldrums. Government is in huge budget deficit mode, and the talk is that the oil subsidy will be revised. I roughly know the state of Government finances from the extracts from BNM. The growth rate in M3 is about RM 10-15 million a yr, which cannot sustain any meaningful bank lending to industry.

GDP this year? Real growth 3%?
Dato, is that number even achievable? After all the ups and downs of the economy tracks really the volume of exports which is governed by the semi conductor cycle. Which is governed by the demand from our friendly Americans for our goods. Last nite, US economy continued to shed jobs. No good news here, and any adjustment to the Petrol subsidy will mean deep recession.
Additional info: You have to utilize a tool called System Dynamics to see the bull whip effect that contributed to the regional increase in economic activity in Q2-Q4 2009. Quarter on quarter, Q4 GDP would be positive, but year on year, I estimate contraction of around -5 to -6%. Full year 2010 -1 to -2% real growth.

And so the question people are asking is why on earth is the Government so focussed on this trial? The people are asking this question because there are 100 other things that requires the Government focus as well, which they feel that the Government is either unable or unwilling to solve.

And that's what will drive voter attitude. The political outcome of this trial will be determined by the economic reality. If Malaysians achieve developed nation status in 2011, then the PM Najib is the best thing since sliced bread. If Malaysia achieves two consecutive years of recession, which is what Wenger J. Khairy is predicting, then the rest is kind of history.

But alas, whoever is driving this ship has set his course to go over the edge of the world, and so may he sail over it, with all those in tow.

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